DNL-343 is a small molecule commercialized by Denali Therapeutics, with a leading Phase III program in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of DNL-343’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for DNL-343 is expected to reach an annual total of $159 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
DNL-343 Overview
DNL-343 is under development for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The drug candidate acts by targeting eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 subunit beta (EIF2B). It is administered through oral route.
It was also under development for the treatment of frontotemporal dementia (FTD).
Denali Therapeutics Overview
Denali Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development of therapeutics for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. Its proprietary drug delivery platform technologies include an antibody transport vehicle and an enzyme transport vehicle designed to deliver large molecules across the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Its pipeline products are intended for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson’s disease, multiple system atrophy, lysosomal storage disorder MPS II, neurodegeneration, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and other indications. The company’s product pipeline include DNL201, DNL151, ATV:aSyn, for Parkinson’s disease, DNL747, ATV:Tau, ATV:TREM2, for Alzheimer’s disease; and CH1 and LF1, for neurodegeneration. It has development and commercialization rights to all of its programs, including the programs partnered with Takeda. The company operates in the UK and the US. Denali Therapeutics is headquartered in San Francisco, California, the US.
For a complete picture of DNL-343’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
