The revenue for DNL-343 is expected to reach an annual total of $140 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

DNL-343 Overview

DNL-343 is under development for the treatment of Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and Frontotemporal dementia (FTD). The drug candidate acts by targeting eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 subunit beta (EIF2B). It is administered through oral route.

Denali Therapeutics Overview

Denali Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development of therapeutics for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. Its proprietary drug delivery platform technologies include an antibody transport vehicle and an enzyme transport vehicle designed to deliver large molecules across the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Its pipeline products are intended for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson’s disease, multiple system atrophy, lysosomal storage disorder MPS II, neurodegeneration, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and other indications. The company’s product pipeline include DNL201, DNL151, ATV:aSyn, for Parkinson’s disease, DNL747, ATV:Tau, ATV:TREM2, for Alzheimer’s disease; and CH1 and LF1, for neurodegeneration. It has development and commercialization rights to all of its programs, including the programs partnered with Takeda. The company has operates in the UK and the US. Denali Therapeutics is headquartered in San Francisco, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$108.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), compared to a revenue of US$48.7 million in FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$340.7 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$295.8 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$326 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$290.6 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$35.1 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, compared to a revenue of US$10.3 million the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of DNL-343’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.