The revenue for Modakafusp alfa is expected to reach an annual total of $53 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Modakafusp alfa Overview

TAK-573 is under development for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, metastatic solid tumors including metastatic cutaneous melanoma. It is administered through intravenous route. It consists of CD38-targeted IgG4 fused with attenuated interferon (IFN) alpha for tumor-specificity. The therapeutic candidate is a monoclonal antibody fusion protein and it acts by targeting cells expressing CD38. The drug candidate was also under development for the treatment of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck cancer, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, triple negative breast cancer and microsatellite stable colon cancer.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Overview

Takeda Pharmaceutical (Takeda) is a research-based pharmaceutical company, which focuses on the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, commercialization, import and export of drugs. It provides treatment for inflammatory bowel disease, acid-related diseases, motility disorders and liver diseases; hemophilia and hereditary bleeding disorders; primary immunodeficiency and multifocal motor neuropathy; major depressive disorder and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; and its cancer treatment encompasses multiple myeloma, mantle cell lymphoma, non-small cell lung cancer and chronic myeloid leukemia. It markets products directly and through a network of wholesale distributors, retail chains and other purchasing groups worldwide. Takeda has partnership with academic institutions, small biotech, and large pharmaceutical companies. It has presence in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, among others. Takeda is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

For a complete picture of Modakafusp alfa’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.