Reboxetine is a small molecule commercialized by Axsome Therapeutics, with a leading Phase III program in Narcolepsy. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 21 clinical trials, of which 13 were completed, 2 are ongoing, and 6 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Reboxetine’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Reboxetine is expected to reach an annual total of $176 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Reboxetine Overview

Reboxetine is under development for the treatment of narcolepsy. The drug candidate is administered through oral route in the form of tablet. It is acts by targeting noradrenaline.

Axsome Therapeutics Overview

Axsome Therapeutics (Axsome) is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes therapies for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The company’s pipeline product portfolio comprises AXS-05, for treatment of resistant depression, smoking cessation and agitation in Alzheimer’s disease, AXS-07, for treatment of migraine, AXS-12, for symptoms of narcolepsy, and AXS-14, for treatment of fibromyalgia. The company supplies its products through internal sales, distributors, and an internal marketing group in the US and outside the US. Axsome is headquartered in New York, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$124.7 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$100.4 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$130.4 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$102.9 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$16.9 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, an increase of 91% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Reboxetine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.