The revenue for Subasumstat is expected to reach an annual total of $14 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Subasumstat Overview

TAK-981 is under development for the treatment of advanced or metastatic solid tumors including microsatellite stable-colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, squamous non-small cell lung cancer, small-cell lung cancer, head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, melanoma, head and neck cancer and relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma, small lymphocytic lymphoma, relapsed or refractory hematologic malignancy, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, lymphoplasmacytoid lymphoma, marginal zone lymphomas. The drug candidate is administered through intravenous infusion. It acts by targeting small ubiquitin-related modifier.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Overview

Takeda Pharmaceutical (Takeda) is a research-based pharmaceutical company, which focuses on the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, commercialization, import and export of drugs. It provides treatment for inflammatory bowel disease, acid-related diseases, motility disorders and liver diseases; hemophilia and hereditary bleeding disorders; primary immunodeficiency and multifocal motor neuropathy; major depressive disorder and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; and its cancer treatment encompasses multiple myeloma, mantle cell lymphoma, non-small cell lung cancer and chronic myeloid leukemia. It markets products directly and through a network of wholesale distributors, retail chains and other purchasing groups worldwide. Takeda has partnership with academic institutions, small biotech, and large pharmaceutical companies. It has presence in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, among others. Takeda is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

For a complete picture of Subasumstat’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.