Tavapadon is a small molecule commercialized by Cerevel Therapeutics, with a leading Phase III program in Parkinson’s Disease. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 13 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, and 8 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Tavapadon’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Tavapadon is expected to reach an annual total of $160 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Tavapadon Overview

Tavapadon (PF-06649751) is under development for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. The drug candidate is administered orally as a tablet and suspension. It acts by targeting dopamine 1 and dopamine 5 receptor.

Cerevel Therapeutics Overview

Cerevel Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company. It develops and commercializes medicines for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Cerevel Therapeutics is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, United States.

The operating loss of the company was US$220.1 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$149.1 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$225.3 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$152.1 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Tavapadon’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.