TERN-501 is a small molecule commercialized by Terns Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Phase II program in Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of TERN-501’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for TERN-501 is expected to reach an annual total of $405 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

TERN-501 Overview

TERN-501 is under development for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH). It acts by activation of thyroid hormone receptor beta (TR-Beta). Thyroid hormone receptor belongs to the class of nuclear receptors.Thyroid hormone receptor belongs to the class of nuclear receptors.The drug candidate is administered through oral route.

Terns Pharmaceuticals Overview

Terns Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that develops single-agent and combination drugs targeting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other chronic liver diseases. It is investigating TERN-101, a FXR (farnesoid X receptor) agonist; TERN-201, a VAP-1 (vascular adhesion protein-1) inhibitor; and TERN-501, a THR-β (thyroid hormone receptor beta) for the treatment of NASH. The company’s funding partners include Decheng Capital, Deerfield Management Co, Eli Lilly and Co, Lilly Asia Ventures, OrbiMed Advisors, and Samsara Capital. Terns Pharmaceuticals is headquartered in Foster City, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021). The operating loss of the company was US$49.9 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$37 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$50.2 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$40.1 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of TERN-501’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.