TERN-501 is a small molecule commercialized by Terns Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Phase II program in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 1 is ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of TERN-501’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for TERN-501 is expected to reach an annual total of $119 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
TERN-501 Overview
TERN-501 is under development for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH). It acts by activation of thyroid hormone receptor beta (TR-Beta). Thyroid hormone receptor belongs to the class of nuclear receptors.Thyroid hormone receptor belongs to the class of nuclear receptors.The drug candidate is administered through oral route.
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Terns Pharmaceuticals Overview
Terns Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that develops single-agent and combination drugs targeting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other chronic liver diseases. The company products pipeline includes TERN- 701, TERN-501 +/- FXR, TERN-601 and TERN-800 series. Its TERN-701 is used in chronic myeloid leukemia; TERN-601 is used in the treatment of obesity and TERN-501 is used in fixed-dose combinations for NASH treatment. It operates offices in the US. Terns Pharmaceuticals is headquartered in Foster City, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$62 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$49.9 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$60.3 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$50.2 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of TERN-501’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
