Tildacerfont is a small molecule commercialized by Spruce Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (Adrenogenital Syndrome). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 10 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, 4 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Tildacerfont’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Tildacerfont is expected to reach an annual total of $178 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Tildacerfont Overview

Tildacerfont (SPR-001) is under development for the treatment of classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia and polycystic ovary syndrome. The drug candidate is a small molecule formulated as a capsule and tablet, administered through oral route. It acts by targeting corticotropin-releasing factor receptor-1. It was under development for the treatment of cushing's disease.

Spruce Biosciences Overview

Spruce Biosciences is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes drugs for rare endocrine disorders. It is investigating its lead product candidate Tildacerfont, a CRF1 receptor antagonist to treat adult and pediatric classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and polycystic ovary syndrome. The company’s approach focuses on reducing the hyperresponsiveness of adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), a hormone involved in the production of cortisol and improve disease control and glucocorticoid steroid burden. Spruce Biosciences is headquartered in Daly City, California, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$42.1 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$29.4 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$42.3 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$29.5 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Tildacerfont’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.