Vepdegestrant is a small molecule commercialized by Pfizer, with a leading Phase III program in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative Breast Cancer (HER2- Breast Cancer). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 19 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, 11 are ongoing, and 3 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Vepdegestrant’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Vepdegestrant is expected to reach an annual total of $363 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Vepdegestrant Overview
Vepdegestrant (ARV-471) is under development for the treatment of estrogen receptor positive and HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer. It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate is a heterobifunctional PROTAC (proteolysis-targeting chimera) and selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) acts by targeting estrogen receptor alpha and cereblon (CRBN).
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Pfizer Overview
Pfizer discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes biopharmaceuticals. The company offers products to treat various conditions such as cardiovascular, metabolic and pain, women’s health, cancer, inflammation, immune disorders, and rare diseases. It also provides sterile injectable pharmaceuticals, biosimilars, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and contract manufacturing services. Pfizer sells its products through wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, individual provider offices, clinics, government agencies and pharmacies. It has major manufacturing facilities in India, China, Japan, Ireland, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Singapore, and the US. The company provides its products in North America, South America, Asia-Pacific, Australia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Pfizer is headquartered in New York, the US.
For a complete picture of Vepdegestrant’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
