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Data Insights Net Present Value Model: AstraZeneca Plc's Zibotentan/Forxiga

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The revenue for Zibotentan/Forxiga is expected to reach an annual total of $13 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Zibotentan/Forxiga Overview

Zibotentan is under development for the treatment of diabetic nephropathy, liver cirrhosis with features of portal hypertension and microvascular angina. The drug candidate is administered orally in the form of tablet and capsule. It is a selective antagonist of the endothelin-A (ET-A) receptor with antineoplastic activity. It was also under development for intermittent claudication in peripheral artery disease, patients with non-metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, primary serous peritoneal cancer, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and non-small cell lung cancer .

AstraZeneca Overview

AstraZeneca is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company’s product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. AstraZeneca sells its products through wholly-owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. AstraZeneca is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,811 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 3.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 17.9%, compared to an operating margin of 8.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 13%, compared to a net margin of 7.4% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$12,679 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, an increase of 5.4% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Zibotentan/Forxiga’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.