Economists believe that the rising unemployment rates in the US is likely to lead to civil unrest, violent protests, and political and economic disputes. They believe that analysing trends of past crises with current conditions can help leaders prepare for future uncertainties.

Jason Schenker

Jason Schenker, an economist and chairman of The Futurist Institute, shared an article on how the economics of the stomach is a real thing. In a LinkedIn post, Schenker explains how 20 million people in the US still remain without jobs because of the coronavirus pandemic, which is most likely to result in some of the most belligerent outcomes such as political upheaval, violent unrest, and uncertainty.

Schenker examines the revolts and revolutions of the past, the impact of Covid-19 in 2020 on the job market and the economy, and futurist scenarios in his book The Economics of Revolt and Revolution. He states that the labour market takes a long time to recover from negative economic shocks, even when the recession ends.

Despite financial markets doing well during a crisis like the current pandemic, it is not the economy and the economy is not the labour market, which takes even longer to recuperate, Schenker adds. Therefore, analysing historic trends and the current data is important for crafting future scenarios and preparedness for leaders.

Prof. Steve Hanke

Prof. Steve Hanke, an economist at the John Hopkins University, shared an article on how Brazil has been able to achieve a trade surplus of $51bn in 2020, a 6% increase from the previous year because the coronavirus pandemic hit imports more than its exports.

The Economic Ministry further revealed Brazil to have exported goods worth $209.9bn in 2020, a decline from the previous year’s exports of worth $225.4bn. Additionally, imports fell from $177.3bn in 2019 to $158.9bn in 2020.

Brazil reported a 7% increase in exports to Asia that amounted to $99.2bn, almost half of the country’s total exports. However, its exports to North and South America slumped by one-fifth each to $29.5bn and $22.7bn respectively, the article detailed.

The Economy Ministry is also expecting a $53bn trade surplus next year.

Charles Kenny

Charles Kenny, senior fellow and the director of technology and development at the Centre for Global Development, shared an article on the Thai Shippers’ Council remaining upbeat about export recovery this year despite a rise in Covid-19 infections in the country.

Nationwide lockdowns have created a labour shortage in farm and agricultural industries such as the fisheries and food processing industries which rely heavily on migrant workers. However, despite the migrant crisis, the Council expect exports to rebound to 3-4% growth this year, driven primarily by the arrival of Covid-19 vaccines, the speedy economic recovery of China, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership pact.

Chairwoman Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong stated that the Council has also requested the government to provide the necessary aid to manufactures amid the rise in Covid-19 infections. These include state service fee and utility fee reduction and the extension of soft loan schemes in the next two months.