MSD’s CEO, Robert Davis, has laid out plans to derisk its projected revenue losses over the next five years amid Keytruda’s patent expiry, at the ongoing 2026 J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco.
In a presentation at the event, Davis painted a positive picture for the MSD’s near-term success, noting that the company’s plans to home in on the development of its late-stage pipeline, while adding that “value-adding transactions” could offer it a $70bn commercial growth opportunity.
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MSD’s strategic ploy comes amid the looming patent cliff facing its immune checkpoint inhibitor, Keytruda (pembrolizumab), which became the best-selling drug on the market in 2024 after bringing in $29.5bn for the company.
While GlobalData forecasts that Keytruda sales will continue to grow for the next couple of years – making $35.5bn for the company in 2027 – global patents covering the drug’s market exclusivity are set to expire in 2028. This will likely result in significant losses for MSD, as Keytruda accounted for around 46% of the company’s sales in 2024. GlobalData predicts sales of the drug in 2031 to drop to $19bn.
To offset this impact, MSD, known as Merck & Co in the US, has devised a strategy to add further value to its marketed portfolio, with the company expecting the launch of 20 new products, many of which have blockbuster potential, said Davis.
Of these launches, 10 are expected to constitute 70% of the $70bn sales expectation by the mid-2030s, of which “nearly all” are first-in-class molecules. This includes the marketed pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) therapy Winrevair (sotatercept), as well as an inhaled chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) medication, Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine) and an infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) jab, Enflonsia (clesrovimab-cfor).
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By GlobalDataOf the $70bn goal, there is a 50-50 split between internal and external medicines, according to the company.
Also in this list are several late-stage pipeline products, such as oncology candidate sac-TMT (sacituzumab tirumotecan), which recently posted positive Phase III results in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) alongside Keytruda. MSD previously licensed the global commercial rights to sac-TMT outside of greater China from Blackstone Life Sciences.
MSD is also running 80 Phase III trials, which could see several new therapies make it to market. Of these, Davis highlighted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pill islatravir, which is currently being evaluated as both a pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) therapy and a treatment for HIV alongside other antiretrovirals, including Gilead’s lenacapavir. According to Davius, islatravir could become an “anchor medicine” in the indication.
GlobalData, parent company of Clinical Trials Arena, forecasts that islatravir plus Pifeltro (doravirine) will bring in $1.7bn in sales for MSD in 2033.
Davis also spoke about the broadening and diversification of MSD’s pipeline, which he believes will “drive growth” moving forward.
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