Pfizer has set its FY2026 profit forecast below analyst estimates, blaming projected losses on waning Covid vaccine sales and the looming patent cliff faced by some of its best-selling assets.
Through this adjustment, Pfizer now expects profits ranging between $2.80 and $3 per share in 2026, which sits below the analyst estimate of $3.05 per share, as per the London Stock Exchange (LSEG).
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This means the company now expects its FY2026 revenue to fall somewhere between $59.5bn and $62.5bn. This compares with LSEG estimates of $61.59bn.
The share price in Pfizer was largely unchanged at market open on 16 December following the announcement.
Meanwhile, Pfizer’s R&D expenses are expected to fall in the range of $10.5bn to $11.5bn as the company looks to advance the development of its newly licensed PD-1xVEGF oncology asset from 3SBio, as well as a range of clinical programmes from its recent Metsera buyout.
According to Pfizer, Covid vaccine profits are set to fall by $1.5bn in 2026 compared to forecasted profits for 2025. Covid-related headwinds are affecting other pharma companies as demand for products drops. Moderna blamed a drop in Covid vaccine sales for this year’s Q2, which fell short of analyst expectations.
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By GlobalDataPfizer also estimates it will lose $1.5bn in profit through the loss of market exclusivity for certain portfolio assets. While Pfizer did not explicitly name which of its products would contribute to this loss, its Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor Xeljanz (tofacitinib) will see a majority of its key patents expire throughout 2026. Blood thinner Eliquis (apixaban) and cancer drug Ibrance (palbociclib) are also set to lose protection in the next few years.
Citi analysts said in a research note: “While [Pfizer] is on the right path to get back to growth, we see continued near-term pressure from loss of exclusivity.”
Pfizer’s FY2026 outlook is not the only thing to see a cut, as the company’s FY2025 profit forecast has been trimmed to $62bn – a figure on the lower end of its previous revenue guidance of $61bn to $64bn. This is a downturn from the previous profit forecast the company made in August 2025.
Earlier this year, Pfizer raised the value of its ongoing cost-cutting strategy, which will see the company slash its spending by $7.7bn by 2027. The reorganisation plan was first unveiled in 2023.
Through the sweeping cost-savings scheme, the company has planned to cut 230 jobs in Switzerland. This forms part of Pfizer’s wider efforts to downscale its operations in the country.
Pfizer targets lucrative weight loss arena
As CEO Albert Bourla homes in on stringent cost-cutting measures, he has also led Pfizer through some hefty pipeline-bolstering deals in the last couple of months.
Last month, Pfizer acquired obesity biotech Metsera for $10bn after a highly publicised bidding war with Novo Nordisk. Through the deal, Pfizer will gain access to long-lasting weight loss candidates.
Just under a month after the Metsera acquisition, Pfizer also signed a $2bn deal with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical-owned YaoPharma, which saw the big pharma company obtain the global licence to develop, manufacture and commercialise Yao’s oral glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), YP05002.
These deals come after Pfizer axed its own oral obesity hopeful, danuglipron, in April 2025, after a patient receiving the drug suffered a treatment-induced liver injury during a clinical trial.
Pfizer’s cardiometabolic-focused strategy is backed by lofty market projections. GlobalData forecasts that obesity treatments will be worth $173.5bn across the seven major markets (7MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan) in 2031.
