Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have been competing in the obesity market for the past year, making it an opportune time to review the benefits of the two most prominent obesity medications. According to leading data and analytics company GlobalData, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (tirzepatide) is poised to surpass Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (semaglutide), despite expectations for continued sales growth for both drugs.
Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy made a significant impact on the obesity market when it launched in 2021. Many key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData have highlighted its revolutionary effect. With an average weight loss of 14% of body weight in obese patients, Wegovy became the most effective obesity medication available, addressing a previously underserved market. Wegovy’s success, coupled with the recognition of obesity as a chronic metabolic disease, spurred a wave of investment into obesity treatment. Currently, more than 400 companies are actively developing obesity treatments in phases of development ranging from discovery to clinical trials and preregistration, according to GlobalData’s drug database.
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Following Wegovy’s success, Eli Lilly introduced Zepbound after receiving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in November 2023. Zepbound, also known as Mounjaro outside the US, quickly emerged as Wegovy’s primary competitor. Tirzepatide’s dual agonism mechanism allows for 20% average body weight loss in patients. Recent head-to-head trial results demonstrated the superior efficacy of Zepbound over Wegovy, leading to a decline in Novo Nordisk’s stock value. Zepbound’s market entry has reduced Novo Nordisk’s patient share over the past year, although drug shortages have also been a significant factor.
Novo Nordisk has sought to maintain its market position by securing additional approvals for Wegovy, including for cardiovascular risk factors. Semaglutide, which was initially approved for type 2 diabetes under the name Ozempic, has since gained approvals for obesity and other metabolic indications. Currently, semaglutide is approved for type 2 diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular risk factors, and is in development for four additional indications, including chronic kidney disease. Similarly, tirzepatide has been approved for type 2 diabetes under the name Mounjaro and for obesity under the name Zepbound (or Mounjaro in some regions). On 20 December, tirzepatide also received FDA approval for obstructive sleep apnea. Tirzepatide is being investigated for four additional indications, including cardiovascular risk factors, chronic kidney disease, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. Both companies are aiming to expand the patient populations benefiting from their blockbuster drugs, leading to projected sales growth over the next decade. Thus, Eli Lilly appears to be following a strategy similar to Novo Nordisk’s to further increase patient populations and sales.
Additionally, Eli Lilly is negotiating with various national health services regarding the pricing and prescription of tirzepatide. If tirzepatide proves to also be a more cost-effective option for patients, it may surpass Novo Nordisk in the obesity treatment market.
Despite the recent launch of tirzepatide in many countries, the results from the past year indicate that Eli Lilly currently offers the most competitive option in the obesity market. This development represents a significant, albeit anticipated, challenge for its competitor Novo Nordisk.
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