The overactive bladder (OAB) market is set to experience moderate growth over the next decade, driven by rising prevalence and the potential launch of novel drug therapies. According to GlobalData’s recent Overactive Bladder: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030 report, the OAB market was valued at a modest $2.2bn in 2020 across the eight major markets (8MM) covered in the report: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and China. By 2030, the market is projected to grow to $2.8bn at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.7%.
OAB is a symptom complex characterized by urinary urgency, with or without incontinence. Currently, the market is dominated by oral antimuscarinics, a highly genericized drug class, as well as two oral beta 3 adrenergic receptor agonists, Astellas’ Myrbetriq (mirabegron) and vibegron (marketed as Gemtesa in the US by Urovant Sciences and as Beova in Japan by Kyorin Pharmaceutical). While OAB drug sales are projected to increase by 2030, a slump in the market is anticipated during the early-to-mid-forecast period (2020‒2025), with sales projected to decline to $2.1bn, at a negative CAGR of 1.2%. This largely reflects revenue losses for Astellas’ antimuscarinic Vesicare (solifenacin succinate) and beta-3 adrenergic receptor agonist Myrbetriq, as well as Pfizer’s antimuscarinic Toviaz (fesoterodine fumarate) due to generic sales erosion arising from recent and upcoming patent expirations in the major markets. Additionally, the late-stage pipeline is notably scarce. There are no pipeline therapies expected to launch in the next few years that could compensate for these revenue losses.
However, a strong recovery is projected for the mid-to-late forecast period (2025‒2030) with OAB sales forecast to increase from $2.1bn in 2025 to $2.8bn in 2030, at a CAGR of 6.7%. Global population dynamics will influence this to some extent. For example, advanced age and higher body mass index (BMI) are factors significantly associated with higher risks of OAB. Trends such as ageing populations and rising obesity over the forecast period are therefore expected to increase OAB prevalence and expand the treatment pool.
The anticipated launch of several pipeline products from 2026 onwards will also boost market growth in the mid-to-late forecast period. These are Bayer’s P2X purinoceptor 3 (P2RX3) antagonist Eliapixant, which is in development for the global market, Urovant Sciences’ gene therapy URO-902, which is in development for the US market, and Taiho Pharmaceutical’s neurite outgrowth enhancer TAC-302, which is in development for the Japanese market. All of these pipeline candidates are novel therapies that are currently in Phase II development. In particular, URO-902 is expected to perform well commercially, if approved. The therapy has the potential to become the first gene therapy approved for OAB. Although it will only be prescribed to a small proportion of the treatment population, URO-902 is anticipated to receive a high price tag and is expected to account for approximately 29% of US sales by 2030.
Figure 1. displays total drug sales in OAB across the 8MM from 2020 to 2030.