AL-002 is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Alector, with a leading Phase II program in Alzheimer’s Disease. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of AL-002’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for AL-002 is expected to reach an annual total of $17 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

AL-002 Overview

AL-002 is under development for the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders including Alzheimer’s disease. It is administered through an intravenous route. The drug candidate acts by targeting TREM2.

Alector Overview

Alector is a biotechnology company that develops therapies for immune system to cure neurodegeneration and cancer. The company discovers and develops immune-modulatory therapies for Alzheimer’s disease and other neurodegenerative disorders. It combines state-of-the-art antibody technology and recent discoveries in neuroimmunology and oncology to fight cancer. Alector also generates and validates antibody drugs that engage key disease-altering and genetically validated neuroimmune targets. The company develops drugs through collaborations with scientists and drug developers. It operates a manufacturing facility in Milpitas, California. Alector is headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$207.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of US$21.1 million in FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$37.4 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$195.2 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$36.3 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$190.2 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$14.9 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, a decrease of 81.4% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of AL-002’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.