Alprazolam is a small molecule commercialized by UCB, with a leading Phase III program in Seizures. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 8 clinical trials, of which 6 were completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Alprazolam’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Alprazolam is expected to reach an annual total of $103 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Alprazolam Overview
Alprazolam (AZ-002) is under development for the treatment of seizure. The drug candidate is administered through inhalational route. It is combination of proprietary staccato system with alprazolam. The drug candidate was also under development for the treatment of acute panic attacks.
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UCB Overview
UCB is a biopharmaceutical company that is engaged in the discovery and development of novel medicines and solutions for the treatment of various severe diseases. It strives to develop products for the treatment of neurology and immunology related conditions. The company’s marketed products include Cimzia for ankylosing spondylitis, axial spondyloarthritis, Crohn’s disease, psoriatic arthritis, non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis; Neupro for Parkinson’s disease and restless legs syndrome; Evenity for osteoporosis, and Vimpat, Keppra and Briviact for epilepsy. The company operates through subsidiaries in the US, Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, China, the UK, Ireland, Belgium, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Turkey and other countries. UCB is headquartered in Brussels, Brussels-Capital Region, Belgium.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR5,517 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 4.5% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 10.6%, compared to an operating margin of 22.2% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 7.6%, compared to a net margin of 18.3% in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Alprazolam’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
