The revenue for AROAPOC-3 is expected to reach an annual total of $267 mn by 2033 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

AROAPOC-3 Overview

AROAPOC-3 is under development for the treatment of hypertriglyceridemia, mixed dyslipidemia and familial Chylomicronemia. It is administered through the subcutaneous route. The therapeutic candidate is a siRNA which acts by targeting apolipoprotein C III. It is being developed based on targeted RNAi molecule (TRiM) platform. It is a double-stranded oligomer ARO-APOC3 RNA interference-based liver targeted therapeutic.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Overview

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (Arrowhead), formerly Arrowhead Research, is a pharmaceutical company. It develops and markets medicinal products including ARO-AAT, JNJ-3989, ARO-APOC3, ARO-ANG3, ARO-ENaC, ARO-HIF2, ARO-Lung2, ARO-HSD, ARO-HIF2, AMG 890, ARO-JNJ1, ARO-JNJ2 and ARO-JNJ3.The company develops pipeline drugs that are being developed to treat chronic hepatitis B infection for the treatment of liver disease, cardiovascular disease, hypertriglyceridemia, dyslipidemia, cystic fibrosis and and renal cell carcinoma. It also offers design of internal preclinical and clinical development programs to enable novel new therapies. The company has operations in California and Wisconsin, the US. Arrowhead is headquartered in Pasadena, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$243.2 million for the fiscal year ended September 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 75.9% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$178.5 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$149 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$176.1 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$140.9 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$146.3 million for the second quarter ended March 2023, compared to a revenue of US$62.6 million the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of AROAPOC-3’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.