Autogene cevumeran is a mrna vaccine commercialized by BioNTech, with a leading Phase II program in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 5 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Autogene cevumeran’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Autogene cevumeran is expected to reach an annual total of $159 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Autogene cevumeran Overview

Autogene cevumeran is under development for the treatment of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, previously untreated advanced melanoma, locally advanced or metastatic solid tumors such as non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, transitional cell carcinoma (urothelial cell carcinoma) including urethral cancer, ureters cancer, triple-negative breast cancer, bladder cancer, renal pelvis, renal cell carcinoma, melanoma, oral cavity cancer, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal and laryngeal cancer. The drug candidate is administered by intravenous route. The therapeutic candidate is developed based on iNeST (patient specific cancer antigen immune therapy) platform technology. It was also under development for Merkel cell carcinoma, anal cancer, cervical cancer, hepatocellular cancer, MSI-H and MSI-low tumors and squamous cell carcinoma of skin.

BioNTech Overview

BioNTech is a biotechnology company that develops immunotherapies for cancer and infectious diseases. It is investigating mRNA therapeutics, engineered cell therapies, antibodies and small molecule immunomodulators to treat advanced melanoma, solid tumors, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), prostate, head and neck, ovarian, pancreatic and triple negative breast cancer. The company is also evaluating treatments for HIV, tuberculosis, influenza and covid-19. BioNTech utilizes FixVac and iNeST technology platforms to discover and develop cancer immunotherapies targeting antigens and neoantigens. It works in partnership with Genentech Inc, Eli Lilly and Co, Genmab AS, and other biopharmaceutical companies to develop its pipeline products. BioNTech is headquartered in Mainz, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany.

The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR18,976.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of EUR482.3 million in FY2020. The operating profit of the company was EUR15,283.8 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of EUR82.4 million in FY2020. In FY2021, the company recorded a net margin of 54.2%, compared to a net margin of 3.2% in FY2020. The company reported revenues of EUR3,461.2 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, an increase of 8.3% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Autogene cevumeran’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.