Belcesiran is an antisense rnai oligonucleotide commercialized by Novo Nordisk, with a leading Phase II program in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (A1AD). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Belcesiran’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for Belcesiran is expected to reach an annual total of $3 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Belcesiran (DCR-A1AT) is under development for the treatment of alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) deficiency and its associated liver disease. It is a ribonucleic acid interference (RNAi) therapeutic administered through subcutaneous route. It is developed based on GalXC RNAi technology platform. It acts by targeting alpha 1- antitrypsin.
Novo Nordisk Overview
Novo Nordisk, a subsidiary of Novo Holdings AS, is a healthcare company focused on discovering, developing, and manufacturing of innovative biological medicines. It focuses on advancing drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other serious chronic conditions, including hemophilia, human growth hormone (HGH) disorders, rare blood and rare endocrine diseases, and obesity. The company’s portfolio includes pre-filled delivery systems for insulin; glucagon hypokit; cartridge; needles; vials; insulin; estradiol for hormone replacement; recombinant drugs for hemophilia; glucagon; and oral antidiabetic agents. The company markets its products through subsidiaries in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.
The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK176,954 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 25.7% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 42.3%, compared to an operating margin of 41.7% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 31.4%, compared to a net margin of 33.9% in FY2021. The company reported revenues of DKK53,367 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, an increase of 11% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Belcesiran’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.