Capivasertib is a small molecule commercialized by AstraZeneca, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative Breast Cancer (HER2- Breast Cancer). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 47 clinical trials, of which 24 were completed, 19 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Capivasertib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Capivasertib is expected to reach an annual total of $292 mn by 2032 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Capivasertib Overview

Capivasertib (AZD-5363) is under development for the treatment of relapsed or refractory (R/R) B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, relapsed/refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, advanced refractory lymphoma and multiple myeloma, diffuse large B cell lymphoma, solid tumors including metastatic triple negative breast cancer, advanced (inoperable) or metastatic HR+/HER2− breast cancer, HER2 positive breast cancer, hormone refractory castration resistant prostate cancer, metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, adenocarcinoma of prostate cancer, recurrent endometrial cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, primary peritoneal cancer and fallopian tube cancer. The drug candidate is administered through oral route as a tablet. It is a pyrrolopyrimidine-derived compound that targets all isoforms of AKT (protein kinase B). It was also under development for cervical cancer, follicular lymphoma (FL), marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL).

AstraZeneca Overview

AstraZeneca is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company’s product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. AstraZeneca sells its products through wholly- owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. AstraZeneca is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$44,351 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 18.5% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 8.5%, compared to an operating margin of 2.8% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 7.4%, compared to a net margin of 0.3% in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$11,416 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, an increase of 4.9% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Capivasertib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.