Cenerimod is a small molecule commercialized by Idorsia Pharmaceutical, with a leading Phase III program in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 12 clinical trials, of which 6 were completed, 4 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Cenerimod’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Cenerimod is expected to reach an annual total of $180 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Cenerimod Overview

Cenerimod (ACT-334441) is under development for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus. It is a small molecule administered oral route in the form of capsule. It acts by targeting sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor 1 (S1P1). It was also under development for the treatment of sicca syndrome (sjogren).

Idorsia Pharmaceutical Overview

Idorsia Pharmaceutical (Idorsia) is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes small molecules to treat the central nervous system and cardiovascular and immunological disorders. It is investigating daridorexant against insomnia; aprocitentan for the treatment of resistant hypertension; clazosentan to treat cerebral vasospasm associated with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; and L-lucerastat compound targeting fabry disease. The company is also evaluating drugs against suspected acute myocardial infarction, systemic lupus erythematosus, Binge eating disorder, and rare lysosomal storage disorders. It works in collaboration with Janssen Biotech to develop and commercialize Aprocitentan drug candidates. Idorsia is headquartered in Allschwil, Switzerland.

The company reported revenues of (Swiss Francs) CHF97.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), compared to a revenue of CHF35.4 million in FY2021. The operating loss of the company was CHF803 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of CHF613 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was CHF827.9 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of CHF634.6 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Cenerimod’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.