CVL-871 is a small molecule commercialized by Cerevel Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Dementia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of CVL-871’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for CVL-871 is expected to reach an annual total of $120 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

CVL-871 Overview

CVL-871 is under development for the treatment of dementia related apathy and Parkinson's disease. It acts by targeting dopamine 1 (D1) and dopamine 5 receptor (D5). It is administered through oral route.

Cerevel Therapeutics Overview

Cerevel Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company. It develops and commercializes medicines for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Cerevel Therapeutics is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, United States.

The operating loss of the company was US$220.1 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$149.1 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$225.3 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$152.1 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of CVL-871’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.