Fosgonimeton is a small molecule commercialized by Athira Pharma, with a leading Phase III program in Alzheimer’s Disease. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Fosgonimeton’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Fosgonimeton is expected to reach an annual total of $44 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Fosgonimeton Overview

Fosgonimeton is under development for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, diabetic neuropathy, Parkinson's disease dementia and dementia with lewy bodies. It is administered subcutaneously. The drug candidate acts by targeting hepatocyte growth factor and its receptor (MET).

Athira Pharma Overview

Athira Pharma, is a biopharmaceutical company that develops small molecules to treat neurodegenerative diseases and restore neuronal health. It is investigating ATH-1017, a small molecule drug for the treatment of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease; ATH-1020 against neuropsychiatric disorders; and Early Compounds that is Neuropathic Pain. The company works in partnership with contract development and manufacturing organizations to manufacture and supply preclinical and clinical materials for development of product candidates. Athira Pharma is headquartered in Bothell, Washington, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$64 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$19.8 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$54.9 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$20 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Fosgonimeton’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.