Ipatasertib is a small molecule commercialized by F. Hoffmann-La Roche, with a leading Phase III program in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative Breast Cancer (HER2- Breast Cancer). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 52 clinical trials, of which 21 were completed, 27 are ongoing, 3 are planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Ipatasertib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Ipatasertib is expected to reach an annual total of $50 mn by 2032 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Ipatasertib Overview

Ipatasertib (RG-7440/GDC-0068) is under development for the treatment of metastatic solid tumors including advanced or metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, peritoneal cancer, castration-resistant prostate cancer in previously untreated patients and also patients treated with docetaxel chemotherapy, metastatic and hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, glioblastoma mulitforme, melanoma, locally advanced or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma. The drug candidate is administered orally in the form of tablets and capsules.  It is a small molecule with antineoplastic activity. Ipatasertib targets the serine/threonine protein kinase Akt (protein kinase B). It was also under development for neoadjuvant triple negative breast cancer, endometrial cancer and prostate cancer.

F. Hoffmann-La Roche Overview

F. Hoffmann-La Roche (Roche) is a biotechnology company that develops drugs and diagnostics to treat major diseases. It provides medicines for the treatment of cancer, other auto-immune diseases, central nervous system disorders, ophthalmological disorders, infectious diseases, and respiratory diseases. The company also offers in vitro diagnostics, tissue-based cancer diagnostics, and diabetes management solutions. Roche conducts research to identify novel methods to prevent, diagnose, and treat diseases. The company offers its products and services to hospitals, commercial laboratories, healthcare professionals, researchers, and pharmacists. Together with its subsidiaries and partners, the company has operations in various countries. Roche is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

The company reported revenues of (Swiss Francs) CHF63,281 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 0.8% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was CHF17,476 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of CHF18,155 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was CHF12,421 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of CHF13,930 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Ipatasertib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.