Iptacopan is a small molecule commercialized by Novartis, with a leading Phase III program in Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 23 clinical trials, of which 8 were completed, 12 are ongoing, 2 are planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Iptacopan’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for Iptacopan is expected to reach an annual total of $250 mn by 2032 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Iptacopan Overview
Iptacopan (LNP-023) is under development for the treatment of glomerulonephritis- IgA nephropathy (Berger's disease), early to middle age-related macular degeneration, C3 glomerulopathy, proteinuria, atypical hemolytic uraemic syndrome, lupus nephritis, immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria. It is administered through oral route as a hard gelatin capsule. It acts by targeting complement factor B (FB). The therapeutic candidate is a new molecular entity (NME).
It was also under development for the treatment of idiopathic/primary membranous nephropathy.
Novartis Overview
Novartis is a healthcare company that focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of prescription and generic pharmaceutical products and eye care products. It provides drugs for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, dermatological conditions, neurological disorders, ophthalmic and respiratory diseases, hematologic diseases, solid tumors, immune disorders, and infections, among others. The company offers generic medicines and biosimilars through Sandoz. Novartis conducts research in various disease areas through The Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research (NIBR). The company operates through a network of subsidiaries and offices across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Novartis is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$51,742 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 2.1% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was US$9,197 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of US$11,689 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$6,955 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of US$24,021 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Iptacopan’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
