Lebrikizumab is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Almirall, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Atopic Dermatitis (Atopic Eczema). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 32 clinical trials, of which 23 were completed, 6 are ongoing, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Lebrikizumab’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Lebrikizumab is expected to reach an annual total of $515 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Lebrikizumab Overview

Lebrikizumab (RG-3637, RO-5490255, MILR-1444A, PRO-301444, TNX-650) is under development for the treatment of persistant moderate to severe atopic dermatitis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. It is administered by subcutaneous route. The drug candidate is an interleukin (IL)-13 antibody. It was also under development for severe asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Almirall Overview

Almirall is a specialty pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and commercializes proprietary medicines and licensed products. The company’s major area of focus is dermatology covering psoriasis, eczema, acne, and other skin infections. It also develops products for autoimmune diseases including rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis; and gastrointestinal diseases including irritable bowel syndrome with constipation. The company also works together with small and medium-sized companies and healthcare professionals to develop medical solutions and provide them to patients. It operates through affiliates in Europe and Central America and has R&D centers in Spain and Germany. Almirall is headquartered in Barcelona, Spain.

The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR827.2 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), an increase of 2.4% over FY2020. In FY2021, the company’s operating margin was 0.7%, compared to an operating margin of 11.4% in FY2020. The net loss of the company was EUR40.9 million in FY2021, compared to a net profit of EUR74.3 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of EUR197.2 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, a decrease of 54.8% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Lebrikizumab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.