MRNA-1345 is a mrna vaccine commercialized by Moderna, with a leading Phase III program in Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infections. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of MRNA-1345’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for MRNA-1345 is expected to reach an annual total of $287 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

MRNA-1345 Overview

mRNA-1345 is under development for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in young children and adults. It comprises of lipid nanoparticles encapsulated mRNAs encoding for a prefusion F glycoprotein. The therapeutic is developed based on lipid nanoparticles (LNP) technology and mRNA expression platform. It is administered through parenteral and intramuscular route.

Moderna Overview

Moderna operates as a developer of messenger RNA therapeutics. The company develops and discovers drugs that produce proteins or antibodies inside patient cells. Its pipeline includes various drug modalities such as prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized therapeutics, and liver intracellular. Moderna through its mRNA therapeutics platform develops and produces human proteins, antibodies, and novel proteins, which help in preventing, treating, and curing diseases. It also develops therapeutics in the areas of infectious disease, rare liver disease, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular disease. Moderna Therapeutics is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$18,471 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of US$803.4 million in FY2020. The operating profit of the company was US$13,296 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$763.1 million in FY2020. The net profit of the company was US$12,202 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$747.1 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$3,364 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, a decrease of 29.2% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of MRNA-1345’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.