Neffy is a small molecule commercialized by ARS Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Phase III program in Food Allergy. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 15 clinical trials, of which 12 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Neffy’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Neffy is expected to reach an annual total of $165 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Neffy Overview
Epinephrine (ARS-1) is under development for the treatment of anaphylaxis caused by severe allergic reactions to medications, insect bites, asthma, urticaria, seasonal allergic rhinitis, food allergy and infectious rhinitis. It is formulated as spray and administered through intranasal route. The drug candidate acts by targeting ADRA, ADRB adrenergic receptors. It is developed based on Intravail technology.
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ARS Pharmaceuticals Overview
ARS Pharmaceuticals, formerly Silverback Therapeutics, focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of medicines for the treatment of chronic viral infections, cancer, and other serious diseases. The company is advancing SBT6050 for breast cancer, gastric cancer, and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), SBT6290 for bladder cancer, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and head and neck (H&N) cancer; and SBT8230 for chronic hepatitis B virus. ARS Pharmaceuticals is also advancing pre-clinical candidates for the treatment of solid tumors and liver fibrosis. The company employs its proprietary, ImmunoTAC technology platform to advance the development of its pipeline products. ARS Pharmaceuticals is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022). The operating loss of the company was US$35.5 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$89.6 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$34.7 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$89.5 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Neffy’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
