NN-1845 is a recombinant protein commercialized by Novo Nordisk, with a leading Phase I program in Type 2 Diabetes. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of NN-1845’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for NN-1845 is expected to reach an annual total of $7 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

NN-1845 Overview

Insulin is under development for the treatment of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. It acts by targeting insulin receptors.

Novo Nordisk Overview

Novo Nordisk, a subsidiary of Novo Holdings AS, is a healthcare company focused on discovering, developing, and manufacturing of innovative biological medicines. It focuses on advancing drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other serious chronic conditions, including hemophilia, human growth hormone (HGH) disorders, rare blood and rare endocrine diseases, and obesity. The company’s portfolio includes pre-filled delivery systems for insulin; glucagon hypokit; cartridge; needles; vials; insulin; estradiol for hormone replacement; recombinant drugs for hemophilia; glucagon; and oral antidiabetic agents. The company markets its products through subsidiaries in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK176,954 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 25.7% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was DKK74,809 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of DKK58,644 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was DKK55,525 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of DKK47,757 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of NN-1845’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.