NUV-868 is a small molecule commercialized by Nuvation Bio, with a leading Phase II program in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 1 clinical trial, which is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of NUV-868’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for NUV-868 is expected to reach an annual total of $93 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

NUV-868 Overview

NUV-868 is under development for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia and advanced solid tumors including ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, peritoneal cancer, pancreatic cancer, metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate targets bromodomain-containing protein 4 (BRD4).

Nuvation Bio Overview

Nuvation Bio is a biotechnology company developing proprietary therapies focused on oncology. The companies proprietary portfolio includes six novel and mechanistically distinct oncology therapeutic product candidates, each targeting some of the most difficult-to-treat types of cancer. The company is headquartered in New York City, New York, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$93.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$43.6 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$86.9 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$41.7 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of NUV-868’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.