Pamrevlumab is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by FibroGen, with a leading Phase III program in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 21 clinical trials, of which 9 were completed, 7 are ongoing, and 5 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Pamrevlumab’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Pamrevlumab is expected to reach an annual total of $459 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Pamrevlumab Overview

Pamrevlumab (FG-3019) is under development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, Duchenne muscular dystrophy and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) or fibrosis involved in pancreatic cancer, liver fibrosis and coronavirus disease 2019 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It is administered as an intravenous infusion. FG-3019 is a fully human recombinant IgG, kappa monoclonal antibody that acts against connective tissue growth factor (CTGF). The drug candidate was also under development for the treatment of systemic sclerosis, microalbuminuria, pneumonia, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, type I or type II diabetes mellitus, diabetic nephropathy,  (diabetic kidney disease) and proteinuria.

FibroGen Overview

FibroGen is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, and develops medicines for the treatment of anemia, cancer, and fibrotic disease. Its approved product includes roxadustat for the treatment of treatment of anemia associated with chronic kidney disease, in both dialysis-dependent (DD) and non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) patients. Its pipeline product includes pamrevlumab (FG-3019) for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD); ELUMINEX for the treatment of Corneal Blindness. The company is also evaluating pamrevlumab in Phase II for investigating its safety and efficiency in patients with COVID-19. The company has operations in the US, Hong Kong, Finland, Cayman Islands and China. FibroGen is headquartered in San Francisco, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$235.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), an increase of 33.5% over FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$288.5 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$191.9 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$290 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$189.3 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$15.7 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, a decrease of 47.2% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Pamrevlumab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.