The revenue for Paxalisib is expected to reach an annual total of $145 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Paxalisib Overview

Paxalisib is under development for the treatment of high-grade glioblastoma or glioma, breast cancer metastases to brain, pediatric diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma, solid tumors with brain metastases and leptomeningeal metastases, primary CNS lymphoma and anaplastic astrocytoma, rhabdoid/teratoid tumors (AT/RT) and metastatic melanoma. It is a small molecule administered orally as a capsule. It acts by targeting the phosphoinositide 3-kinase and mTOR. The drug candidate was under development for the treatment of patients recurrent high-grade glioblastoma or glioma.

Kazia Therapeutics Overview

Kazia Therapeutics (Kazia) is a clinical stage biotechnology company which focuses on the discovery and development of anti-cancer drugs. The company’s product pipeline includes paxalisib (formerly GDC-0084) and Cantrixil (TRX-E-002-1). Paxalisib is an inhibitor of PI3K /AKT /mTOR pathway to treat glioblastoma multiforme It is in phase II clinical trials. TRX-E-002-1 (Cantrixil) is a third generation benzopyran molecule that acts against cancer stem cells. Cantrixil is in phase I clinical trials for the treatment of ovarian cancer. The company has collaborations with various research institutes, hospitals, and universities including St Jude Children’s Hospital, University of Newcastle, Dana Farber Cancer Institute and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre to develop its pipeline. Kazia is headquartered in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

The operating loss of the company was AUD25 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of AUD8.9 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was AUD24.7 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of AUD8.4 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Paxalisib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.