TAK-861 is a small molecule commercialized by Takeda Pharmaceutical, with a leading Phase III program in Narcolepsy. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 4 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of TAK-861’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for TAK-861 is expected to reach an annual total of $352 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
TAK-861 is under development for the treatment of narcolepsy and unspecified neurological disorders. It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate acts by targeting orexin receptor type 2 (HCRTR2).
Takeda Pharmaceutical Overview
Takeda Pharmaceutical (Takeda) is a research-based pharmaceutical company which focuses on the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, commercialization, import and export of pharmaceutical drugs. The company offers products in the areas of rare diseases, gastrointestinal, oncology, neuroscience, vaccines, and plasma-derived therapies. Takeda has facilities in Japan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, the US, Denmark, Norway, Europe, Poland, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, China, India, and Canada among others. It markets products directly and through a network of wholesale distributors, retail chains and other purchasing groups worldwide. Takeda has partnership with academic institutions, small biotech, and large pharmaceutical companies. It has presence in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, among others. Takeda is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY4,027,478 million for the fiscal year ended March 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 12.8% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 12.2%, compared to an operating margin of 12.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 7.9%, compared to a net margin of 6.4% in FY2022.
For a complete picture of TAK-861’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.