Tarlatamab is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Amgen, with a leading Phase I program in Small-Cell Lung Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 5 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Tarlatamab’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Tarlatamab is expected to reach an annual total of $50 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Tarlatamab Overview

Tarlatamab (AMG-757) is under development for the treatment of neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC), metastatic melanoma and small cell lung cancer. The drug candidate is administered by intravenous route. The drug candidate is an extended half-life anti-DLL3, anti-CD3 bi-specific antibody developed based on BiTE Antibody technology.

Amgen Overview

Amgen is a biotechnology company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets innovative human medicines to treat patients suffering from serious diseases. It develops novel medicines in six focused disease areas including cardiovascular diseases, oncology/hematology, inflammation, bone health, neurological disorders and nephrology. The company develops products using advanced human genetics to unravel the difficulties of disease and understand the fundamentals of human biology. Amgen sells products primarily to pharmaceutical wholesale distributors in the US. It also markets certain products directly to consumers through direct-to-consumer channels such as print, television and online media. Amgen is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$26,323 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 1.3% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was US$9,566 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of US$7,639 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$6,552 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of US$5,893 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Tarlatamab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.