The revenue for Tipelukast is expected to reach an annual total of $72 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Tipelukast Overview

Tipelukast (KCA-757) is under development for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and metabolic syndrome. It is administered orally in the form of tablet. The drug candidate targets leukotriene (LT) receptor, phosphodiesterases 3, 4, phospholipase C, 5-lipoxygenase and thromboxane A2. It was also under development for the treatment of bronchial asthma and interstitial cystitis.

MediciNova Overview

MediciNova is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on acquiring, and developing novel, small-molecule therapeutics for the treatment of neurological, respiratory, and liver diseases. MediciNova’s developmental pipeline includes core programs for the treatment of fibrotic diseases; neurological disorders; and respiratory diseases. The company’s non-core programs formulations developed for indications include treatment of bronchial asthma; interstitial cystitis; solid tumors; and for the treatment of preterm labor. It has partnerships with various companies such as Angiogene Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Kyorin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, Kissei Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, and Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd, to develop and commercialize its products. The company is headquartered in La Jolla, California, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$14.6 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$10.2 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$14.1 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$10.1 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Tipelukast’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 16 August 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.