VTX-958 is a small molecule commercialized by Ventyx Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Psoriatic Arthritis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 3 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of VTX-958’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for VTX-958 is expected to reach an annual total of $300 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
VTX-958 Overview
VTX-958 is under development for the treatment of Crohn’s disease, plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus and psoriatic arthritis. It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate acts by targeting non receptor tyrosine protein kinase (TYK2).
Ventyx Biosciences Overview
Ventyx Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that discover and develops novel drugs for inflammatory diseases and autoimmune disorders. The company’s pipeline include VTX958, a TYK2 inhibitor for the treatment of various autoimmune diseases; VTX002, S1P1 receptor modulator for the treatment of ulcerative colitis and others. Ventyx Biosciences headquartered in Encinitas, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$113.1 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$67.2 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$108.4 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$83.8 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of VTX-958’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
