Zatolmilast is a small molecule commercialized by Shionogi, with a leading Phase III program in Fragile X Syndrome. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 11 clinical trials, of which 7 were completed, and 4 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Zatolmilast’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for Zatolmilast is expected to reach an annual total of $64 mn by 2033 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
BPN-14770 is under development for the treatment of fragile X syndrome, traumatic brain injury and Alzheimer's disease. The drug candidate is administered through oral route. It acts by targeting enzyme phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE 4D) enzyme.
Shionogi focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices. It develops innovative products and services in collaboration with its partners. The company offers prescription drugs, over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, and diagnostic products for the therapeutic areas including metabolic disorders, infectious diseases, pain/central nervous system (CNS), and cancer. It offers contract development and manufacturing facilities including all stages from drug development to commercial manufacturing. The company operates a network of subsidiaries, branches, sales offices manufacturing plants, and research laboratories across Japan, China, Taiwan; North America and Europe. Shionogi is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY335,138 million for the fiscal year ended March 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 12.8% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 32.9%, compared to an operating margin of 39.5% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 34.1%, compared to a net margin of 37.6% in FY2021. The company reported revenues of JPY187,568 million for the third quarter ended December 2022, compared to a revenue of JPY78,939 million the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Zatolmilast’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.