ZNc-5 is a small molecule commercialized by Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Phase II program in Metastatic Breast Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, 1 is ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of ZNc-5’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for ZNc-5 is expected to reach an annual total of $155 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ZNc-5 Overview

ZNc-5 is under development for the treatment of estrogen receptor positive and HER2 negative advanced metastatic breast cancer. The drug candidate is administered by oral route. It is a selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) which acts by targeting estrogen receptor.

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Overview

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals formerly Zentalis Pharmaceuticals LLC, is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develops small molecule drugs to treat cancers. It is investigating its lead product candidate ZN-c3, a WEE1 inhibitor against uterine serous carcinoma, solid tumors, osteosarcoma, and ovarian cancer. The company is also evaluating ZN-c5, an oral SERD (selective estrogen receptor degrader) for the treatment of breast cancer; ZN-d5, a BCL-2 (B-cell lymphoma 2) inhibitor targeting hematologic malignancies; and ZN-e4, an EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) inhibitor to treat non-small cell lung carcinoma. Zentalis Pharmaceuticals utilizes its integrated discovery engine to identify and develop oncology therapies. The company works in collaboration with Pfizer Inc, Mayo Clinic and SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc, among others. Zentalis Pharmaceuticals is headquartered in New York, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$165 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$118.8 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$158.7 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$117.8 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of ZNc-5’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.