Zuranolone is a small molecule commercialized by Shionogi, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Post Partum Depression (Maternal Depression / Postnatal Depression). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 23 clinical trials, of which 14 were completed, 6 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Zuranolone’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for Zuranolone is expected to reach an annual total of $288 mn by 2032 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Zuranolone Overview
Zuranolone (SAGE-217, SAGE-NCE) is under development for the treatment of postpartum depression, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder. It is administered by the oral route. It is a new chemical entity (NCE) that targets GABAA receptor. SAGE-NCE is developed based on positive and negative allosteric modulator (PANAM) chemistry platform. It was also under development as an intravenous therapy for refractory status epilepticus (RSE) and as an oral therapy for orphan genetic epilepsy disorders, such as Dravet syndrome, Rett syndrome and Fragile X syndromes. The drug candidate was also under development for essential tremors, dyskinesias, insomnia and Parkinson’s disease.
Shionogi Overview
Shionogi focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices. It develops innovative products and services in collaboration with its partners. The company offers prescription drugs, over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, and diagnostic products for the therapeutic areas including metabolic disorders, infectious diseases, pain/central nervous system (CNS), and cancer. It offers contract development and manufacturing facilities including all stages from drug development to commercial manufacturing. The company operates a network of subsidiaries, branches, sales offices manufacturing plants, and research laboratories across Japan, China, Taiwan; North America and Europe. Shionogi is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY335,138 million for the fiscal year ended March 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 12.8% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 32.9%, compared to an operating margin of 39.5% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 34.1%, compared to a net margin of 37.6% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of JPY187,568 million for the third quarter ended December 2022, compared to a revenue of JPY78,939 million the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Zuranolone’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
