Figure 1: Global Overview of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Drug Resistance, 9MM, Men and Women, All Ages, 2015–2025

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The burden of drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cases is expected to grow between 2015 and 2025 in the nine major markets (9MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, China, Brazil, and Japan). GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in diagnosed prevalent HIV cases that show resistance to at least one type of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Figure 1 shows these expected changes in the 9MM from 2015 to 2025.

HIV is a lentivirus that impairs and destructs the CD4 cells of the immune system. This weakens the immune system, leaving an infected individual more susceptible to other illnesses and, over time, impairing the individual’s ability to fight off infections. Effective ART can slow disease progression in an infected individual and reduce viral load so that an infected individual is less likely to pass on HIV. However, HIV resistant to ART has emerged in treated patients, often as a result of poor compliance, and can be transmitted to new patients, which may hamper the effectivity of ART.

In the 9MM, the total number of diagnosed prevalent cases of ART-resistant HIV is expected to grow from 1,572,926 in 2015 to 2,302,233 in 2025 for an annual growth rate (AGR) of 4.64%. This increase is due to a combination of a growing number of diagnosed prevalent HIV cases and an increase in the percentage of cases resistant to ART. To determine the prevalence of ART resistance, GlobalData analysts conducted both secondary research and primary research, which included interviews with key opinion leaders and surveys of 100 high-prescribing physicians. Leveraging this in-depth research, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast increases in the proportion of drug-resistant HIV cases to varying degrees in eight of the 9MM.

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While the last ten years have seen substantial progress in the fight against HIV, the growth of ART resistance will remain a major challenge. This poses a threat our ability to treat and prevent HIV in the coming years.

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Details about the trend analysis and other discussions of HIV epidemiology can be found in the EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025 and the EpiCast Model: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025.