ALKS-2680 is a small molecule commercialized by Alkermes, with a leading Phase II program in Type 1 Narcolepsy (Narcolepsy with Cataplexy);Type 2 Narcolepsy (Narcolepsy without Cataplexy). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 3 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of ALKS-2680’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

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Data Insights Net Present Value Model: Alkermes Plc's ALKS-2680

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The revenue for ALKS-2680 is expected to reach an annual total of $30 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ALKS-2680 Overview

ALKS-2680 is under development for the treatment of narcolepsy (narcolepsy type 1, narcolepsy type 2) and idiopathic hypersomnia. The drug candidate acts by targeting orexin receptor type 2. it is administered through oral route.

It was under development for the treatment of disorders associated with excessive daytime sleepiness.

Alkermes Overview

Alkermes is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of cancer, neurodegenerative and central nervous system (CNS) diseases. The company’s proprietary products include Aristada and Aristada Initio an extended-release intramuscular injectable suspension for the treatment of schizophrenia; and Vivitrol, a once-monthly, non-addictive, injectable medication for the treatment of alcohol dependence and for the prevention of relapse to opioid dependence. It grants licenses under its proprietary technologies to enable third parties to develop, commercialize, and manufacture products. Alkermes sells its products primarily to pharmaceutical wholesalers, treatment providers, specialty distributors and pharmacies. The company has global operations. Alkermes is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1,663.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 49.6% over FY2022. The operating profit of the company was US$414.1 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$6.1 million in FY2022. The net profit of the company was US$355.8 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$158.3 million in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$399.1 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 13.9% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of ALKS-2680’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.