ARCT-810 is an oligonucleotide commercialized by Arcturus Therapeutics, with a leading Phase I program in Ornithine-Transcarbamylase Deficiency. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of ARCT-810’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for ARCT-810 is expected to reach an annual total of $6 mn by 2032 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ARCT-810 Overview

ARCT-810 is under development for the treatment of ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency. It is administered through the intravenous route. The drug candidate is an ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) mRNA. It is developed based on lipid-enabled and unlocked nucleic acid modified RNA delivery technology (LUNAR) platform and manufactured by NanoAssemblr technology. It acts by targeting periportal hepatocytes.

Arcturus Therapeutics Overview

Arcturus Therapeutics (Arcturus) formerly Arcturus Therapeutics Ltd, is a pharmaceutical company that develops a portfolio of nucleic acid therapeutics for treatment of diseases. The company discovers and develops RNA medicines and design and utilize lipid-mediated drug delivery systems. Arcturu’s pipeline products portfolio include ARCT-810 (LUNAR-OTC), ARCT-032 (LUNAR-CF), ARCT-021 (LUNAR-COV19 Vaccine) and LUNAR Flu. It provides messenger RNA (mRNA), that is used as protein replacement therapy to treat diseases caused by a lack of protein and by defective proteins for cystic fibrosis. The company RNA therapeutics includes programs pursuing rare diseases, Hepatitis B, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cystic fibrosis, and COVID-19. Arcturus is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$12.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), an increase of 29.6% over FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$202.9 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$71.5 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$203.7 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$72.2 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$13.4 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, a decrease of 50.7% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of ARCT-810’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.