Brensocatib is a small molecule commercialized by Insmed, with a leading Phase III program in Bronchiectasis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 15 clinical trials, of which 9 were completed, and 6 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Brensocatib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Brensocatib is expected to reach an annual total of $381 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Brensocatib Overview

Brensocatib (INS-1007, AZD-7986) is under development for the treatment of neutrophil mediated diseases including non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, cystic fibrosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary fibrosis (COPD), coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), hidradenitis suppurativa and chronic rhinosinusitis without nasal polyps. The drug candidate is administered through oral route. It acts by targeting dipeptidyl peptidase 1 (DPP1). 

It was also under development for granulomatosis with polyangiitis.

Insmed Overview

Insmed is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing novel therapeutics for rare diseases. Its marketed product, Arikayce (liposomal amikacin for inhalation) is indicated for mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) lung infection and NTM lung infections caused by MAC in adult patients. The company uses its proprietary, liposomal technology to develop its novel drug candidates. Its pipeline products include brensocatib for non-cystic fibrosis (non-CF) bronchiectasis, cystic fibrosis and COVID-19; TPIP, an inhaled formulation of a treprostinil prodrug for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and PAH associated with interstitial lung diseases. The company operates in the US, the UK, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Germany, France and Japan through its subsidiaries. Insmed is headquartered in Bridgewater, New Jersey, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$188.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), an increase of 14.6% over FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$392.8 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$265.2 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$434.7 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$294.1 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$67.7 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, an increase of 3.8% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Brensocatib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.