Cagrilintide is a synthetic peptide commercialized by Novo Nordisk, with a leading Phase III program in Obesity. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 14 clinical trials, of which 10 were completed, 2 are ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Cagrilintide’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for Cagrilintide is expected to reach an annual total of $79 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Cagrilintide is under development for the treatment of obesity and type 2 diabetes. The drug candidate is administered as a once-daily and once weekly subcutaneous formulation. It is a long-acting amylin analogue. Amylin is co-located with insulin in secretory granules and co-secreted with insulin by pancreatic beta cells in response to food intake.
Novo Nordisk Overview
Novo Nordisk, a subsidiary of Novo Holdings AS, is a healthcare company focused on discovering, developing, and manufacturing of innovative biological medicines. It focuses on advancing drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other serious chronic conditions, including hemophilia, human growth hormone (HGH) disorders, rare blood and rare endocrine diseases, and obesity. The company’s portfolio includes pre-filled delivery systems for insulin; glucagon hypokit; cartridge; needles; vials; insulin; estradiol for hormone replacement; recombinant drugs for hemophilia; glucagon; and oral antidiabetic agents. The company markets its products through subsidiaries in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.
The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK176,954 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 25.7% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was DKK74,809 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of DKK58,644 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was DKK55,525 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of DKK47,757 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Cagrilintide’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.