Cagrilintide is a synthetic peptide commercialized by Novo Nordisk, with a leading Phase III program in Obesity. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 22 clinical trials, of which 14 were completed, and 8 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Cagrilintides valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Cagrilintide is expected to reach an annual total of $3.98 bn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalDatas Expiry Model. The drugs revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drugs phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Cagrilintide Overview
Cagrilintide is under development for the treatment of obesity and type 2 diabetes. The drug candidate is administered as a once-daily and once weekly subcutaneous formulation and oral route. It is a long-acting amylin analogue. Amylin is co-located with insulin in secretory granules and co-secreted with insulin by pancreatic beta cells in response to food intake.
Novo Nordisk Overview
Novo Nordisk, a subsidiary of Novo Holdings AS, is a healthcare company with focus on discovering, developing, and manufacturing biological medicines. It focuses on advancing drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other serious and chronic conditions including haemophilia, human growth hormone (HGH) disorders, rare blood and rare endocrine diseases and obesity. The companys portfolio includes pre-filled delivery systems for insulin; glucagon hypokit; cartridge; needles; vials; insulin; estradiol for hormone replacement; recombinant drugs for haemophilia; glucagon; and oral antidiabetic agents. The company markets its products through subsidiaries in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.
The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK232,261 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 31.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the companys operating margin was 44.2%, compared to an operating margin of 42.3% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 36%, compared to a net margin of 31.4% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of DKK65,349 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 0.8% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Cagrilintides valuation, buy the drugs risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
