Centanafadine is a small molecule commercialized by Otsuka, with a leading Phase III program in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 18 clinical trials, of which 13 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Centanafadine’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
Smarter leaders trust GlobalData
The revenue for Centanafadine is expected to reach an annual total of $144 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Centanafadine Overview
Centanafadine SR (EB-1020) is under development for the treatment of adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depressive disorder. It is a sustained-release (SR) formulation administered orally as a tablet and capsule. It acts by targeting norepinephrine, serotonin and dopamine transporters.
It was also under development for the treatment of smoking cessation and moderate to severe binge eating disorder (BED).
Otsuka Overview
Otsuka is a holding company, which operates various businesses such as pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses through its subsidiaries. It focuses on the research and development, manufacture, and sale of medicines for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, central nervous system disorders, ophthalmic diseases, gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, dermatological conditions, and allergies. The company’s product portfolio includes pharmaceutical products, cosmedics, functional foods and beverages, fine chemicals, electronic equipment, functional chemicals, medical devices, and OTC products. It markets its products across North America, Europe, and Asia. Otsuka is headquartered in Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY2,018,568 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 16.1% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 6.9%, compared to an operating margin of 8.8% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 6%, compared to a net margin of 7.7% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of JPY519,517 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 3.7% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Centanafadine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
Data Insights
From
The gold standard of business intelligence.
Blending expert knowledge with cutting-edge technology, GlobalData’s unrivalled proprietary data will enable you to decode what’s happening in your market. You can make better informed decisions and gain a future-proof advantage over your competitors.
GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
