Danicamtiv is a small molecule commercialized by Bristol-Myers Squibb, with a leading Phase II program in Systolic Heart Failure. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 4 were completed, 1 is ongoing, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Danicamtiv’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Danicamtiv is expected to reach an annual total of $24 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Danicamtiv Overview
Danicamtiv (MYK-491, DCM-1) is under development for the treatment of atrial fibrillation and systolic heart failure. It is a new molecular entity which is administered through oral route as a suspension and tablet. It is developed based on MyoKardia's drug discovery platform.
The drug candidate was under development for dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).
Bristol-Myers Squibb Overview
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is a specialty biopharmaceutical company that is engaged in discovery, development, licensing and manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of medicines and related medical products to patients with serious diseases. Its primary focus is on cancer, immunology, cardiovascular, and fibrotic therapeutic projects. The company offers its products across the world to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, medical professionals, hospitals and government entities. BMS provides its products in the US, Europe, and Japan. The company conducts research to focus on the discovery and development of novel medicines that address serious diseases in areas of significant unmet medical need. BMS is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,006 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 2.5% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 20.9%, compared to an operating margin of 20.9% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 17.8%, compared to a net margin of 13.7% in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Danicamtiv’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
