Milvexian is a small molecule commercialized by Bristol-Myers Squibb, with a leading Phase II program in Venous Thromboembolism. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 27 clinical trials, of which 21 were completed, 2 are ongoing, and 4 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Milvexian’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Milvexian is expected to reach an annual total of $316 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Milvexian Overview

Milvexian (BMS-986177) is under development for the prevention and treatment of thrombosis, acute ischemic stroke (SSP), venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome. It is administered through oral route as a suspension. It acts by targeting factor XIa.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Overview

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is a specialty biopharmaceutical company that is engaged in discovery, development, licensing and manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of medicines and related medical products to patients with serious diseases. Its primary focus is on cancer, cardiovascular, immunology and fibrotic therapeutic projects. The company offers its products across the world to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, medical professionals and government entities. BMS provides its products in the US, Europe, and Japan. The company conducts research to focus on the discovery and development of novel medicines that address serious diseases in areas of significant unmet medical need. BMS is headquartered in New York City, New York, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$46,159 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 0.5% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was US$9,665 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of US$8,615 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$6,327 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of US$6,994 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Milvexian’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.