MRNA-3927 is a gene therapy commercialized by Moderna, with a leading Phase II program in Propionic Acidemia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 2 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of MRNA-3927’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for MRNA-3927 is expected to reach an annual total of $40 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
MRNA-3927 Overview
mRNA-3927 is under development for the treatment of propionic acidemia in pediatrics. It is developed based on messenger RNA expression and N2GL formulation platform. The therapeutic candidate comprises of lipid nanoparticle (LNP) encapsulated dual mRNA therapy that encodes for PCCA and PCCB. It is administered by intravenous route.
Moderna Overview
Moderna is a biotechnology company that focuses on the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company develops and discovers drugs that produce proteins or antibodies inside patient cells. Its pipeline includes various drug modalities such as prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized therapeutics, and liver intracellular. Moderna through its mRNA therapeutics platform develops and produces human proteins, antibodies, and novel proteins, which help in preventing, treating, and curing diseases. It also develops therapeutics in the areas of infectious disease, rare liver disease, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular disease. Moderna Therapeutics is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$6,848 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 64.4% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$4,239 million in FY2023, compared to an operating profit of US$9,420 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$4,714 million in FY2023, compared to a net profit of US$8,362 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of MRNA-3927’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
