Sozinibercept is a fusion protein commercialized by Opthea, with a leading Phase III program in Wet (Neovascular / Exudative) Macular Degeneration. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Sozinibercept’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Sozinibercept is expected to reach an annual total of $453 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Sozinibercept Overview
OPT-302 (VGX-300) is under development for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. The drug candidate is administered through the intravitreal route. It is a soluble fusion protein comprising of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 3 (VEGFR-3) fused to the Fc fragment of human immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1). The drug candidate acts by targeting vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C) and vascular endothelial growth factor D (VEGF-D). It was also under development for the treatment of solid tumors.
Opthea Overview
Opthea formerly Circadian Technologies, is a biotechnology company that develops novel biologic therapy for the treatment of eye diseases. The company carries out research and development of angiogenesis and vascular leakage-based treatments for cancer concentrating on vascular endothelial growth factors. Its pipeline products include VEGF-C, VEGF-D and VEGFR-3. Opthea’s lead compound, OPT-302 is used in combination with existing VEGF-A inhibitors in patients with age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. The company’s VEGF-D diagnostics is a prognostic indicator of number of tumor types, and VEGF-C diagnostics, an indicator of survival rate. It partners with healthcare and diagnostic centers. Circadian is headquartered in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$0.1 million for the fiscal year ended June 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 18.7% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$150.3 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$96.7 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$142.5 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$92.8 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Sozinibercept’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
